2016 GOP Presidential Clown Car

2016 GOP Presidential Clown Car

Tuesday, August 30, 2016

And the Trump lies just keep coming

Trump keeps lying about crime in America.

For weeks now, Republican presidential nominee Donald Trump has been harping on how crime is allegedly “out of control” in American cities. On Monday morning, he reiterated the talking point as part of his ongoing pitch to African American voters.  In a series of tweets, Trump repeated his claims that African-Americans live in neighborhoods overrun by criminals and, if they vote for him, he'll clean it up.

Trump didn’t cite any evidence to support the point he’s trying to make. But his claim that crime is at “record levels” in the inner-city or elsewhere is false. Violent crime in America’s cities has actually been declining for two decades. The New York Police Department’s latest crime figures embody the point — while murders are up 12 percent so far this year relative to 2014, they’re down 82 percent compared to 23 years ago.

“The average person in a large urban area is safer walking on the street today than he or she would have been at almost any time in the past 30 years,” the authors of a report on 2015 crime data for the Brennan Center For Justice wrote.

When Trump has used specific numbers, he’s cherry-picked ones that take long-term trends out of context. For instance, during his speech to the Republican National Convention last month, Trump mentioned that homicide rates in the country’s 50 largest cities were up last year compared to 2014. That’s factually correct, but it’s also a misleading way to talk about crime, as a brief uptick isn’t inconsistent with a long-term downward trend.

With regard to crime more broadly, the Brennan report found that “crime rates remain at historic lows nationally, despite recent upticks in a handful of cities.”

But Trump isn’t one to let data get in the way of a narrative he wants to push. For instance, last year he tweeted a series of made up murder statistics from a fake stats bureau purportedly showing that blacks are responsible for way more violent crime than is actually the case. It was later revealed that a graphic Trump shared containing the made-up “statistics” was posted by a neo-Nazi who used a swastika as his avatar.

Rather than rolling out an actual policy agenda aimed at addressing problems in America’s cities, Trump has courted African Americans by painting an exceedingly bleak portrait of their lives in front of the predominately white audiences who attend his rallies.

When he’s pressed on what he’ll actually do to try and tamp down on crime, Trump merely points out that he supports “tough police tactics” without specifying what that entails.

He publicly congratulated himself after the recent murder of Nykea Aldridge, cousin of NBA superstar Dwyane Wade, because he believes that sort of senseless violence encourages African Americans to vote Trump, even if he doesn’t have a real plan to do anything about it. So far, his message hasn’t resonated— recent polling shows Trump in the single digits among African Americans.

 Trump claims Virginia saw a "huge increase" in illegal immigration when Tim Kaine was governor.  Trump lies.

Donald Trump depicted Tim Kaine’s 2006-10 tenure as governor of Virginia as a painful time of tax hike proposals and rising unemployment.

"He also oversaw a huge increase in illegal immigration, a tremendous increase," Trump told supporters at an Aug. 20 rally in Fredericksburg.

We wondered whether Trump was correct that, under Kaine’s governorship, illegal immigration spiked. We emailed the Trump campaign twice to ask about the basis of his statement, but we did not hear back.

The GOP presidential nominee’s campaign posted a version of his speech online that includes a footnote to support his claim. It’s a 2007 editorial in The Washington Times that accused Kaine of failing to crack down on unauthorized immigrants who commit crimes.

But the editorial provides no insight into whether the number of illegal immigrants in the state rose during Kaine’s tenure.

For additional insight, we reached out to the nonpartisan Pew Hispanic Center, which estimates the size of the illegal immigration population in each state. Here are Pew’s figures on the size of Virginia’s illegal immigrant population by year:

•2005 - 250,000
•2006 - 250,000
•2007 - 250,000
•2008 - 275,000
•2009 - 250,000
•2010 - 275,000

For 2011 and 2012, the latest years for which figures are available, the size of the illegal immigrant population also was 275,000, Pew found.

So when Kaine entered office in 2006, the size of the illegal immigrant population was 250,000, it rose to 275,000 in 2008 and then went back down to its original level during 2009, his last full year in office, according to the Pew figures.

If you go to 2010, during which Kaine served only the first two weeks, the illegal immigrant population was 275,000 - or 25,000 higher than when he entered the governor’s mansion.

While a 10 percent increase in the illegal immigrant population between 2006 and 2010 might seem significant, it’s actually not much of a change at all from a statistical perspective, said Jeffrey Passel, a senior demographer at Pew.

Passel explained that the research group’s illegal immigration figures are not meant to be exact figures on the size of the state’s illegal immigrant population. Rather, they are estimates culled from a sample of data collected by the Census Bureau and are subject to rounding. Just like a public polls drawn from a sample, there’s a margin of error involved in the estimates.

During Kaine’s time in office, the annual size of the illegal immigrant population could be 15,000 to 20,000 higher or lower than the mid-range estimate Pew reported each year, according to its report. So it’s possible that a 25,000 increase from year-to-year might not outpace the Pew study’s margin of error.

The bottom line, during Kaine’s tenure the size of the illegal immigrant population remained flat, Passel said.

Nationally, the illegal immigrant population peaked in 2007 at 12.2 million and fell to 11.3 million in 2013, Pew’s figures show. A major reason for that drop was the impact of the Great Recession, Passel told us.

The Trump campaign didn’t respond to a question we posed about how Kaine’s policies as governor would have led to an increase in illegal immigration.

Analysts told us that beyond state laws, many other factors contribute to where illegal immigrants choose to reside.

Michelle Mittelstadt, a spokeswoman for the Migration Policy Institute, told us illegal immigrants often settle in a state based on how its economy is doing, and whether they already have family living there.

Friday, August 26, 2016

Is this why Trump is talking about stealing the election?

Donald Trump’s new presidential campaign chief is registered to vote in a key swing state at an empty house where he does not live, in an apparent breach of election laws.

Stephen Bannon, the chief executive of Trump’s election campaign, has an active voter registration at the house in Miami-Dade County, Florida, which is vacant and due to be demolished to make way for a new development.

“I have emptied the property,” Luis Guevara, the owner of the house, which is in the Coconut Grove section of the city, said in an interview. “Nobody lives there … we are going to make a construction there.” Neighbors said the property had been abandoned for several months.

Bannon, 62, formerly rented the house for use by his ex-wife, Diane Clohesy, but did not live there himself. Clohesy, a Tea Party activist, moved out of the house earlier this year and has her own irregular voting registration arrangement. According to public records, Bannon and Clohesy divorced seven years ago.

Read more: https://www.theguardian.com/us-news/2016/aug/26/steve-bannon-florida-registered-vote-donald-trump

Wednesday, August 24, 2016

Has Trump EVER told the truth about ANYTHING???

The "top" cop Donald Trump claimed earlier this week to have met in Chicago was simply a "qualified" officer, the GOP nominee's spokeswoman admitted Wednesday.

Trump was caught in an apparent fabrication during an interview with Bill O'Reilly Monday, when he told the Fox News Channel commentator that he had met with a "top" Chicago Police Department officer with whom he discussed how "tough police tactics" could help quell the city's violence.

"I'm sure he's got a strategy," Trump added about the officer he met with. "I didn't ask him his strategy."


In a statement to NBC Chicago, department spokesman Frank Giancamilli said that "no one in the senior command at CPD has ever met with Donald Trump or a member of his campaign."

Read more: http://www.nydailynews.com/news/politics/trump-caught-embellishing-story-meeting-top-chicago-article-1.2764158

Roundup of commentary on Trump's Train Wreck

Trump's "outreach" to black America is a white supremacist fantasy

It’s clear that Donald Trump’s “black outreach” isn’t actual outreach to black communities. A Trump who wanted to reach black voters would speak to black churches, black colleges, and organizations like the NAACP or the Urban League. The actual Trump, instead, has made his pitch to lily-white audiences in towns and neighborhoods with few black residents. And for good reason. Trump is never going to win more than a token percentage of black voters. If he wants the White House, he’ll need to persuade as many white voters as possible, and a visible commitment to diversity is NOT the way to win over a certain class of right-leaning, suburban whites.

 Best description of the Trump "campaign:"  

It now seems that the next several days of the campaign cycle will be about whether anyone can figure out what Donald Trump's immigration policy is. Mass expulsions, compulsory taco salads, expelling the bad people, letting the models stay, Obama's awesome after all. Trump's new mantra is that "we will follow the law," which - let's not be ungenerous - is a good place to start but of course tells us nothing. This isn't a pivot. It's an effort to sow confusion. Because there's no tenable place for Trump to be on this issue.
His policy of mass expulsion is toxic for a general election audience. Abandoning the centerpiece policy of his campaign is equally unworkable. It doesn't pass a laugh test and it would trigger revolt among his closest supporters. In the end, though, it's Trump and his campaign that sound most confused, brainstorming on the public airwaves some way to square a circle that seems impossible to square. Tonight's speech indicates the plan is to double down on the wall, simply ignore mass expulsion, say Hillary wants the country to be overrun by brown hordes.

It's seldom good when a campaign's supporters can't figure out where the campaign stands on a given issue. It's never good when the campaign itself can't figure out where the campaign stands. It seems ridiculous and adrift.

There's always a temptation with the Trump campaign to uncover some strategy behind what seems on the surface to be scattered, erratic or foolish. But Trump's Razor counsels against this. The truth is the Trump team has no idea what they're doing. Pundits may need a few days to unravel this. But this is at best simply an effort to play for time. 

 Virginia rightwing wackadoodle goes all in on the "Hillary is terminally ill" bullshit

Days after Republican presidential nominee Donald Trump and his campaign surrogates elevated a series of debunked conspiracy theories about Hillary Clinton’s health, a top Trump campaign official went even further on Sunday. John E. Jaggers, Trump’s Northern Virginia and Maryland state director and a veteran Tea Party leader, told a told a Moms for Trump rally in Middleburg, Virginia that Clinton would not survive through even the first year of her presidency.

“This woman is very, very sick and they’re covering it up. You’re not so much talking about Hillary Clinton being president for eight years, you’re talking about Tim Kaine being president for eight years. Because that’s what we’re dealing with here,” Jaggers said, according to the Loudoun Times.
“How many of you would wear a wool coat in August?” Jaggers the attendees, “The woman who seeks to be the first female president of the United States wears a wool coat at every single thing. Have you ever stopped to wonder why? It’s a big deal, folks.”

He appeared to be referencing a new claim by pro-masculinity activist and Hillary Clinton health conspiracy theorist Michael Cernovich that the former Secretary of State must be seriously ill because she was photographed wearing what he termed a “wool coat” on a recent visit to breezy Nantucket, Massachusetts (the low was just 61 degrees).
 Trump, of course, frequently gives speeches wearing a full suit with coat, even in warm weather, as have most presidential candidates. Hillary Clinton also wore a coat in a Labor Day 2007 campaign speech without incident, nine years ago.

 Meanwhile, sources inside the Trump campaign have leaked this photo of a campaign staff meeting: